Responsibility for Jan. 6 and Views on the Jan. 6 Committee

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“Did the House Select Committee change minds about who was responsible for Jan. 6, or simply remind people of what they felt at the outset? It’s not clear from our survey,” Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, says. “In more than a year and a half there’s been no change in the percentage of voters who hold Trump responsible for the insurrection – even with the exposure of his actions by Congress and the Department of Justice. When offered a range of choices, from the U.S. Capitol Police to White Nationalists, 44-45% of voters say Trump is to blame, and older people are somewhat more likely to blame Trump.”

“Not only do Americans view Trump as responsible,” Nteta adds, “but a majority (53%) support the former president being charged with a crime for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.”

“This majority holds among almost all demographic groups, with the exceptions of those with less than a high school degree (45%) and whites (47%); and even among these two groups, the share that supports prosecution is larger than the share that does not,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Thus, while there is disagreement among Americans about whether Trump should be charged, it is not the case that Americans are equally divided on the issue. Rather, a majority of Americans supports prosecution; a vocal minority – roughly a third – opposes it; and a small fraction is unsure.”

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In a reflection of the power of this partisanship, though, Rhodes notes that only 13% of Republicans believe that Trump was primarily responsible for the attack on the Capitol. In fact, fully half of the Republicans surveyed blame either the U.S. Capitol Police (26%) or the Democratic Party (24%) for what happened that day.

The respondents were similarly divided on their views of the Jan. 6 Committee and its findings.

“Although a plurality (40%) of Americans believes the House Select Committee on the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol achieved its goals of investigating and reporting on the attack, nearly a third (30%) disagree, and another 30% expresses ambivalence or uncertainty,” Rhodes says. “About 35% of Americans oppose the Department of Justice charging former president Trump with a crime for his role in the events of Jan. 6, and roughly a third strongly disapprove of the job done by the House Select Committee. Republicans and conservatives are particularly adamant that Trump should not be charged, with roughly three-quarters of each group in opposition. Clearly, despite its best efforts the House Select Committee was unable to win over many Republicans, who continue to stick with the former president.”

“Unsurprisingly, only a smattering of Republicans (13%) believe that the Committee achieved its goal of uncovering the facts associated with the events of Jan. 6,” Nteta says.  “However, in the wake of the committee’s investigation and their findings concerning former President Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, we do find a slow but steady increase in support among Republicans for Trump being charged for his role in the insurrection – up from just 7% in April 2021 to 17% in this poll. Whether this drip will turn into a deluge of support by Republicans for charging Trump is unlikely, but worth paying attention to as Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Department of Justice contemplate whether to pursue criminal charges against the former president.”

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“The dominant narrative following a disappointing Republican showing in the 2022 midterm elections and compelling ‘closing arguments’ from the House Jan. 6 Committee has focused on Republicans distancing themselves from Donald Trump, his election denialism, and his failed attempt to remain in power despite losing the 2020 election,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “While hints of such a shift can be seen among GOP elites, the results from our latest poll, which was in the field precisely two years after the siege on the U.S. Capitol, make it clear the Republican rank-and-file have yet to receive the memo about quitting Trump.”

“Moreover,” La Raja points out, “there has been a slight uptick in the past two years of voters saying ‘it is time to move on’ from the investigation, increasing from 44% to 50%.”