A new year, a new Congress (118th), a good time to look at where we are as a nation politically, and how we got here.

America came to the end of the 2022 election cycle divided and polarized – with many races decided by razor thin margins.  Congressionally, Republicans should have done much better.  Lining up in their favor: 1)  In mid-term elections since 1992, the party controlling the White House typically loses 31 seats in the House and 2 – 3 in the Senate.  2)  Top issues – the economy, crime, foreign policy, immigration – favored Republicans.  3)  Pres. Biden is an uninspiring leader, holding anemic ratings of 43% job approval and 41% favorability.

All this should have led to a 40 – 50 seat gain in the House of Representatives and control of the Senate.  Instead, the Republicans attained only a modest majority in the House, and the Democrats increased their control in the Senate.  Some argue, perhaps cynically, that such a power split is beneficial, since it will produce a stalemate in Washington.  Fewer bills will get through Congress, and the federal government will do less harm.

But politically, what happened?  Exit polls done by Edison Research revealed that inflation was, indeed, the top issue, but abortion was second, which helped the Democrats.  But the electorate was really leveraged toward the Democrats by the cadre of Trump-supported and Trump-supporting candidates, who blared the trumped-up falsehood about the “stolen” 2020 election and that Trump should still be president.

Trump has only a 39% favorability rating, with highly intense unfavorables.  Candidates advocating for Trump’s reinstatement into the presidency unsurprisingly repelled many voters.

A defining question for the 2022 mid-terms was, “Do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020?”  61% answered “yes;” 35% said “no.”  But of non-Republican voters, 81% thought that Biden’s 2020 election was legitimate.  This means the Republic is in better shape vis a vis democracy.

But this is also the manifestation of the disconnect between the electorate and so many Republican candidates.  It is why Republicans failed to gain more congressional seats.  (Some incumbent Trump supporters were reelected, but that’s because of the power of incumbency.)

Importantly, the disaffection with Trump and his coterie of election-denying candidates did not taint the Republican Party as a whole.  36% of voters identified themselves as Republicans, compared to 33% who identified as Democrats.  Favorable/unfavorable numbers for the two parties were virtually identical, and overall, more people cast votes for Republicans than for Democrats.

On issues, voters trusted the Republican Party over the Democrat Party to handle inflation, foreign policy, crime, and immigration.  Only on the abortion issue did the voters trust the Democrat Party more.  So, voters are clearly able to separate their Republican-inclining views on the issues from their jaundiced view of the untrustworthy, graceless man at the top of the Republican Party.

Now, though beset with increasing legal problems, Trump is running again and still bombastically claiming the “Big Lie” about the 2020 election steal.  He even suggested that some clauses in the Constitution be eliminated so he could be reinstalled as president.

Trump still has some followers.  But for many Republicans his story has grown old, and Trump is sounding passe.  He’s like an outdated, over-the-hill uncle who insists on retelling the yarn about the one that got away.

Trump lost seats for Republicans in 2018, lost the election in 2020, and lost seats and control of the Senate in 2022.  Being a serial loser is a damning pejorative for a politician.

Politics is multi-faceted, but the bedrock first principle is winning: “First we must get elected, then we will do great things.”  The corollary is, “If we don’t get elected, we can do nothing.”

The important political question of 2023 is whether the Republican Party can molt from its losing Trumpian coil into a more responsible and politically viable party.

Avi Nelson is a Boston-based political analyst and talk-show host.